The
sudden transfer of Lou Jiwei from his position as China’s Finance Minister to
overseer of the country’s pension system comes as a complete surprise to
many commentators—or it should be. It might well have been a shock to Lou
himself, given that he’s only just approaching the semi-official retirement age of
65 (and current Central Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan is already past that point)
and he’s currently part of Premier Li Keqiang’s high-level trade and finance delegation
to Europe. In fact, the
front page of Monday’s edition of People’s
Daily has Lou sitting behind Li, and the
paper spends a lot of space on the various economic agreements signed
between Beijing and various East European countries during this trip. Lou
wasn’t airbrushed but he was certainly given an abrupt brushoff.
There are those analysts who will no doubt insist that Lou’s
removal is part of Xi consolidating his power—apparently a never-ending process
because that’s what they tell us that Xi’s been doing whenever some high-level
minister or provincial officials gets shunted aside. One can only wonder what
Xi does, according to this school of thinking, when he’s not strengthening his
political position or engaging in power struggles in the run-up to the 19th
Party Congress. Perhaps trying to run China’s Communist party? Perchance even endeavouring
to govern the country?
Of course it’s possible that Lou asked to be replaced, and went on the previously scheduled high-level
trip so as not to roil China’s markets, or its relations with its East European
partners. Perhaps it’s simply a matter of health, overwork and strain for him. Maybe
Lou jumped instead of being pushed.
Maybe. Maybe.
No one outside elite political circles can know for sure at
this moment precisely what happened and why Lou was relieved of his
portfolio—at the beginning of the week, not the end after markets are largely
closed. What is known is that there has been more than a fair amount of tension
between provincial and lower-level officials and Beijing about just how the former
is supposed to generate local growth in a period of economic sluggishness. Property
prices go up, land revenue increases--and Beijing
reaches in to slap-down local governments for creating a real estate bubble.
Provincial officials have been told for months to make the restructuring of
local debt their policy priority—and suddenly the Ministry of
Finance that Lou was then running announces that the central government
would not be liable for debts incurred by special financing vehicles set up by
local authorities to do just that.
None of that created a lot of goodwill between Beijing and its
local brethren.
Nor was Lou helped by Premier Li’s agenda--streamlining administration,
investing in innovation instead of infrastructure, and reforming China’s
financial and fiscal sector. That strategy is popular among China’s technocrats
and scholars (and consequently the international visitors who swing by the
country to seek the odd insight by speaking only with them and the expat crowd)
and probably makes good sense for China in the long-term. But that approach wins
no plaudits from local politicians here, who deal with the daily, and dislike
being told how to run their backyard—especially when what they say they see
from Beijing are instructions to focus on the economy one week, and are then
told to emphasize ideology the following one—and perhaps the one after that. Some
local officials, especially in major cities, were already relieved that Xi was
designated “core”, because
they wanted some consistency and clarity from the capitol about what
they’re supposed to be doing.
Financial managers and stock traders may be
shaken by Lou’s departure, but many China’s lower-level officials will sleep
well this evening knowing that Lou Jiwei won’t be around to curtail them.
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