There’s a rather large problem with the notion that China is
the main beneficiary of the just-concluded America presidential election.
There’s no evidence thus far that the Chinese leadership
thinks so.
Indeed, just as the results of Donald Trump’s stunning
victory are still being digested and debated in the United States, something of
the same sort of searching about seems to be occurring here in China. While
President Xi Jinping made the obligatory phone call to his soon-to-be
counterpart in Washington, he’s made no public speeches or statements about
the American election. China’s
Foreign Ministry spokesman had a boilerplate response to the results the
day that those became official. Neither reaction is surprising, but they’re
revealing.
Meanwhile, Chinese state media is currently all over the
place when it comes to the choice made by the American electorate. Television
news broadcasts here have focused primarily on what they see as the chaotic and
corrupt process by which leaders are elected in the United States, as well as
accounts about various protests in the aftermath of Trump’s victory. Otherwise,
there’s reluctance to adopt a particular line. In one instance, a noted
American expert on US-China relations was interviewed about the impact of the
presidential elections on ties between Beijing and Washington, but only his
comments about why Trump was elected were run for broadcast. If the Chinese
leadership had made any hard and fast conclusions, there would have been a
different result in that editing.
Social media has been lit up by various posts, to be sure,
but that’s to be expected; Chinese citizen cyberspace is active and interesting
anyway, though it almost always reflects individual views rather than speaking
for Chinese officials. And Chinese society is far too diverse to have personal comments
to be seen as somehow representative of the nation as a whole—an error all too often
made by some analysts outside China who pull and pick at various postings that
support preconceptions about “what Chinese think”. Interviews
with local residents reveal that there may well be distinct notions in
urban areas here about what Trump’s election actually means for China, as
opposed to those who haven’t been all that attentive.
Most importantly—and most revealingly--State media has been
cautious, careful and largely quiet. Communist party newspapers, which always
reveal and reflect debates and deliberations about major issues, haven’t taken
on Trump’s election with any consistency, preferring to largely run carefully
selected reports from international media. Those
outtakes might reflect an emerging view out of Beijing, but we’ll only know
that in hindsight.
There’s a lot of useful analysis out there, to be sure (an
excellent list of links has been compiled here).
It’s good that some
international commentators have talked about what Trump’s election might mean
for relations and the region. It’s certainly crucial to consider scenarios
about Beijing’s reactions. And a
few analysts are rightly concerned about the implications of Trump’s ascension
to the American presidency where trade and economic challenges are
concerned.
But its nonetheless a bit baffling as to why far too many others
have jumped to conclusions about what Xi, his comrades and his advisers, see as
the implications of the American presidential election for Sino-American
relations—especially why they would be gleeful. How can these commentaries
possibly know such information, given the closed nature of China’s political
system? What sources do they have? Where are their references to Chinese media--that
is where such views are usually found? How is that many of those writing about
Chinese views are themselves based outside of China, and don’t have access to
even the Chinese street here to make such determinations, never mind Chinese officials?
Who speaks for “China” anyway?
What’s likely happening here is the all-too-usual projection
of preconceptions about what China’s leaders and Chinese citizens should think into conclusions about what
China’s leaders and Chinese citizens actually do believe. Just as we’ve seen
analysts assuming that Beijing is fully behind far-reaching financial reforms
when the party media hardly ever refers to anything of the kind, the same sort
of tendency for others to speak for China seems to be happening here. That
isn’t happenstance; it’s hubris. One would have hoped that the recent American
presidential election would have caused some pause and ponder before they spoke
about what people really think. Apparently at least where China and especially
the Chinese leadership are concerned, that was too much to hope for.
Haha. Trump has surrounded himself with Bush-era Asia people. They are all China hardliners.
ReplyDeleteBut the bottom line is that Trump is going to wreck the economy. If you are thinking of China's power in the world, that might be good. But for ordinary people who make stuff for selling overseas, that will be bad. Of course, a weak dollar will be very bad for all Xi's buddies who have dollar accounts....