No matter what the Nanjing government has tried to do in
recent months—sometimes
pressed by Beijing--the property market here had remained red-hot.
That is, until earlier this week, when the sale of some
major land plots in the city suddenly attracted few or no bids.
The reason, we’re told,
is that Nanjing started to set price ceilings on the property that was recently
made available for new housing, thereby decreasing the profits developers could
expect. Moreover, new rules stipulated that no one could bid above the maximum
price set by the government (a common practice by developers to attempt to close
out any competition by showing resolve and hinting at inside connections).
That measure follows an announcement
at the end of May that those developers who had been especially successful
in recent property acquisitions--by buying and then sitting on property waiting
for even higher prices---could find themselves closed out of new auctions, or
at least have their previously accepted bid cancelled.
Nanjing also put out nearly a dozen additional pieces of
land for sale, so as to “increase supply to stabilize market expectations.”
Greater supply should lower prices, and start to put the damper on property
fever here.
It would be heartening to think that these efforts will have
an immediate and important impact on Nanjing’s housing market. But that’s questionable.
For one, Nanjing--despite its impressive efforts to develop
areas that border the Yangtze River and its incorporation of counties and
townships to the east of the city in recent years—still has what commentators
here often refer to as “a contradictory imbalance of supply and demand” [供求矛盾失衡].
What they mean is that the housing market in Nanjing resembles other economic phenomena in
China that carry potentially serious social consequences: The situation doesn't correspond with conventional
economic models, and State intervention is required to limit the effect of the
condition, lest the imbalance pose a serious social impact.
So, city governments are active in trying to regulate what
they themselves have helped create, by standard policies (acquiring land to
cope with urbanization, selling land to finance physical and social
infrastructure for the same reason) and then even further policies to keep matters
from getting even more unbalanced. But trying to regulate supply and demand
hasn’t worked so far, and it’s unclear if these recent tweaks will do the trick--especially
as the largest land owner in Nanjing is the military, and they’ve always
been eager to hold on to what they already have, so there’s only so much
the city authorities have to work with anyway.
Plus, there are two other forces working against a sudden
slowdown in sales.
One source of those forces is macroeconomic.
Nanjing, like every other major city in China, derives at
least half of its annual revenue from land sales when the property markets are
alight. In recent months, sources indicate that property transfer fees alone—the
transaction tax that sellers and buyers pay to the city government—doubled over
the same period last year. Turning off that faucet isn’t very attractive,
especially amidst a general economic slowdown in the province, making revenue
an even greater requirement.
The other important dynamic is microeconomic—varying by specific
city but subtly quite powerful in Nanjing at least.
Property sales have created embedded interests: stakeholders
in Nanjing who would lose if the property market comes to a screeching halt.
Forget the developers and their political connections; the
banks carrying enormous debt; and the homeowners seeking to pay mortgages of
dubious value in the event of a steep downturn.
Think instead of the sales offices that have taken over
empty retail space; the salespeople (usually very young) who now have jobs when
their university colleagues are scrambling for positions of their own; the
various restaurants whose business is booming because they’re serving people either
looking for apartments or celebrating their recent purchases. And then there
are the decoration companies, the contractors, the laborers, the recyclers, and
the like. All have gained through the present passion in Nanjing for
property—and officials know they need protecting as much as the people buying
it.
Observers from the outside looking into China’s housing
market often speak of the coming collapse or catastrophe that awaits. They’ve
been consistently wrong in their predictions, in large part because they neglect
the local.
Nanjing officials know better. They may not have all the answers,
but they see the conundrum very clearly.
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